<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2020/3/1585145113835.png" alt=" Scott Canon / Kansas News Service " />
 <figcaption> Scott Canon / Kansas News Service </figcaption>
 </figure>By JIM MCLEAN <a href="https://www.kcur.org/post/kansas-republicans-wonder-who-can-defend-us-senate-seat-theyve-taken-granted#stream/0">Kansas News Service</a>&nbsp;TOPEKA — A Democrat hasn’t won a U.S. Senate race in Kansas since the early days of the Great Depression.It
 took that economic crisis to propel George McGill, riding on Franklin 
Roosevelt’s New Deal coattails, to a win. And he served but a single 
term.This year, the country finds itself on the cusp of another 
economic calamity. The COVID-19 epidemic sent the stock market into 
convulsions, forced all range of business and campaigning into 
hibernation and put life in limbo.If the virus continues to 
escalate across the country, and through Kansas, that might even 
jeopardize how people in the state vote and how candidates might 
influence them.What’s more, the man Republicans thought could 
most easily hold the U.S. Senate seat that incumbent Pat Roberts is 
walking away from has, finally, said he’s not interested.That 
has the GOP bracing for a bruising primary anchored within its 
conservative wing — and debating who would run the greatest risk of 
losing a seat the party’s long been able to take for granted.Democrats, in turn, see at least a slugger’s chance of sending one of their own.“It’s a long shot,” said Washburn University political scientist Bob Beatty.Yet
 if an anti-Trump wave builds in the state’s suburban population 
centers, he said, “Democrats want to have a candidate that can take 
advantage of it.”In 2016, Trump won Kansas by 21 percentage points over Democrat Hillary Clinton. But <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-states-where-trump-is-more-and-less-popular-than-he-should-be/">several polls taken in the last two years</a> and the election of Democrats to Congress and the governor’s office in 2018 suggest that a political shift is possible.The
 biggest factor could be who Republicans choose to take on likely 
Democratic nominee Barbara Bollier, a state senator from vote-rich 
Johnson County. She defected from the Republican Party just last year.Republican
 leaders had pinned their hopes on U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. 
He represented Wichita in the U.S. House before joining Trump’s cabinet.
 But after equivocating for months, he decided not to run.That, 
according to early polls, left former Kansas Secretary of State Kris 
Kobach as the frontrunner. That’s got some Republicans nervous.<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2020/3/1585145172144.png" alt=" Kris Kobach won the Republican primary for governor in 2018, but he lost the general election. Credit Scott Canon" />
 <figcaption> Kris Kobach won the Republican primary for governor in 2018, but he lost the general election. Credit Scott Canon</figcaption>
 </figure>Their anxiety stems from Kobach’s loss to Democrat Laura Kelly in the 2018 governor’s race.Joanna
 Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial 
Committee, told Politico in July that a Kobach nomination would put the 
party’s “Senate majority at risk.”In the same article, Roberts said Kobach’s 2018 loss would make winning the Senate race “more difficult.”U.S. Rep. Roger Marshall from western Kansas seizes on those concerns to advance his bid for the nomination.Marshall says his internal polling suggests he’s got the best chance of winning the November general election.“It
 shows us winning by 10 or 20 points while other people in this 
(primary) race would be in jeopardy of losing,” Marshall said.Referring
 to Kobach’s 2018 loss, Marshall asks, “how does a Republican lose a 
governor’s race in a state that President Trump carried by double 
digits?”Republicans at the very top of the party share his 
concerns, Marshall said. He said the issue of Kobach’s candidacy had 
come up in meetings with Senate Majority Mitch McConnell and President 
Trump.“I always try to keep my consversations in the White House
 very private,” Marshall said in a recent interview. “But I’ll tell you 
this, the president is very concerned about keeping the Senate 
majority.”<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2020/3/1585145212141.png" alt=" Former Gov. Jeff Colyer, right, endorsed U.S. Rep. Roger Marshall in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate. Credit Jim McLean" />
 <figcaption> Former Gov. Jeff Colyer, right, endorsed U.S. Rep. Roger Marshall in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate. Credit Jim McLean</figcaption>
 </figure>Marshall, a retired doctor, represents the 1st Congressional District
 covering roughly two-thirds of the state. He appears to be Kobach’s 
chief rival for the nomination. Other candidates include Kansas Senate 
President Susan Wagle and former Kansas City Chiefs player Dave 
Lindstrom.Kobach insists his two successful campaigns for secretary of state show that he can win a statewide general election.“I will certainly win again,” Kobach said.Kobach’s
 connection to Trump benefitted him in previous races. It was the 
president’s last-minute Twitter endorsement that many believe helped him
 narrowly defeat sitting Gov. Jeff Colyer in the 2018 gubernatorial 
primary.Kobach would like history to repeat, but he doesn’t sound confident when asked if he expects to have the president’s backing.“Obviously
 it’s always a great advantage to have the president’s endorsement, but 
I’m not going to try to predict whether he’ll get involved,” Kobach 
said.The concerns raised about his candidacy, he said, come from “establishment” Republicans who fear he’ll be too independent.“Some
 of the moderate establishment is uncomfortable with a strong 
conservative in the Senate seat,” he said. “They would rather have 
somebody who can be forced to compromise, somebody who doesn’t hold firm
 on issues.”Kobach is a polarizing figure. The same hardline 
positions on immigration and ballot security that endear him to his 
conservative base alienate moderates and independents.Marshall 
has the opposite problem. Despite a voting record that he said aligns 
with President Trump “98% of the time,” some conservatives remain 
skeptical of him.That doubt stems from Marshall’s 2016 primary win over Tim Huelskamp, an incumbent Tea Party favorite.The
 national conservative-leaning Club for Growth spent about $400,000 to 
help Huelskamp. Some of that money paid for a TV ad calling Marshall “a 
liberal backed by political insiders.”The group is now working 
to deny Marshall the U.S. Senate nomination. The Club for Growth 
recently spent more than $30,000 to place full-page ads in several 
newspapers that featured anonymous complaints from what it claimed were 
some of Marshall’s former patients.Eric Phals, Marshall’s campaign manager, called the ad “garbage” from a “dark money group out of the D.C. swamp.”Some
 big-name Kansas Republicans are endorsing Marshall in an attempt to 
head off a Kobach nomination. They include former Senator and 1996 
presidential nominee Bob Dole and Colyer, the former governor defeated 
by Kobach in the 2018 primary.“He (Marshall) is a candidate that
 I’m certain Republicans and all Kansans can get behind for the general 
election,” Colyer said in endorsing Marshall at a recent news conference
 in Topeka.Kansas Democrats believe a Kobach win in the August primary would boost their chances in November.That’s
 not entirely wishful thinking, said Michael Smith, an Emporia State 
University political scientist. He said if Kobach is the Republican 
nominee, the Senate race could play out much like the 2018 contest for 
governor.“A Democratic woman stressing moderate themes, health 
care and good government defeating Kobach in the general election, it 
happened in 2018 and it could happen again,” Smith wrote in a recent 
column for Kansas outlets.<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2020/3/1585145252311.png" alt=" Barbara Bollier, a former Republican, is running for the U.S. Senate as a Democrat. Credit Jim McLean" />
 <figcaption> Barbara Bollier, a former Republican, is running for the U.S. Senate as a Democrat. Credit Jim McLean</figcaption>
 </figure>Bollier, the likely nominee and a retired doctor, who switched 
parties last year. Touting her moderate credentials and “ability to 
bridge partisan differences,” she raised more than $1 million during her
 first three months on the campaign trail.The people donating to
 her campaign, Bollier said, “want to see a change in the kind of 
leadership they have representing them in Washington.”“They’re tired,” she said, “of bickering.”Jim
 McLean is the senior correspondent for the Kansas News Service is a 
collaboration of KCUR, Kansas Public Radio, KMUW and High Plains Public 
Radio focused on health, the social determinants of health and their 
connection to public policy. You can reach him on Twitter&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/jmcleanks" target="_blank">@jmcleanks</a>&nbsp;or email jim@kcur.org.

Kan. GOP wonders who can defend Senate seat it's taken for granted