MARC JACOBS
Hutch Post
For western Kansas farmer and agricultural banker John Jenkinson, the contrast is growing in neighboring fields.
In one, a combine moves through corn yielding as little as nine to 20 bushels per acre. In another, newly planted wheat has emerged with enough moisture to offer something farmers could use heading into winter: optimism.
“The wheat that’s been drilled just looks fabulous,” Jenkinson said. “It’s got moisture. It’s all up and growing well, and we’re pretty excited about it.”
During an interview on Eagle Radio's KWBW morning show, Jenkinson described an agricultural economy caught between that promise and the immediate strain of weak grain prices, expensive harvest operations and difficult decisions about water.
Harvest is moving forward, he said, but getting a crop out of the field does not necessarily mean the financial outlook is improving.
Jenkinson said an agricultural supply-and-demand report released earlier this month surprised producers and grain buyers with estimates of more grain and higher yields than they expected. He said the resulting market reaction cut corn prices by roughly 30 to 50 cents in some cases.
“It really caught everybody completely off guard,” he said.
Among the farmers, traders and grain merchandisers he has spoken with, Jenkinson said skepticism about those estimates remains strong. Producers now are looking to subsequent reports for a clearer picture of supplies and the possibility of a market recovery.
For farmers already harvesting, however, expenses cannot wait for the next report.
Fuel powers the combines, grain carts and trucks needed to move grain from the field to storage or an elevator. Jenkinson said those combined operations can push daily fuel expenses into the thousands of dollars.
“Suddenly, you can see where you can spend $2,500 to $3,000 a day during harvest, just trying to get the crop to town,” he said.
That leaves farmers balancing immediate bills against uncertain returns. Financial assistance can help, Jenkinson said, but payments arriving later still leave producers covering expenses upfront.
“Any little help right now helps offset some of these expenses,” he said.
Beyond the farm gate, the challenge becomes finding buyers and getting grain to them at a competitive price.
Jenkinson said overseas crop shortages could create opportunities for American farmers, but demand alone does not guarantee sales. U.S. producers compete with exporters such as Brazil and Argentina, while currency values, trade relationships and transportation costs influence purchasing decisions.
“There could be a shortage in the world, but we still have to export it,” he said.
He pointed to access to shipping facilities, including Oklahoma’s Port of Catoosa, and dependable rail service as important pieces of that equation.
The longer-term outlook also depends on water.
Jenkinson, who farms within Groundwater Management District No. 3, said the district’s conservation planning reflects a difficult balance: extending the life of groundwater supplies while protecting communities whose economies depend on irrigation.
He described a district proposal built around conservation over 40 years and a state request for a shorter, 20-year approach. For Jenkinson, the economic consequences must remain part of those discussions.
“Without hurting the local economies,” he emphasized, “because our economy in the GMD three relies heavily on irrigation.”
Jenkinson said the announced retirement of Kansas Chief Engineer Earl Lewis could slow that ongoing process as new leadership takes over. He also praised Lewis’ experience and knowledge of the state’s water issues.
For now, farmers continue working through the harvest in front of them while watching the crop that will carry their hopes into next year.
The corn has been disappointing in fields Jenkinson recently harvested. The young wheat offers a brighter view.
“It’s all up and growing well,” he said.