The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report points to generally larger supplies and higher ending stocks for most major commodities in the 2025/26 marketing year, with prices under pressure in grains and oilseeds but firmer trends in cotton and some livestock sectors.
Wheat
U.S. wheat supplies are projected slightly higher as beginning stocks were revised upward. Domestic feed and residual use is reduced, while exports remain unchanged. Ending stocks are forecast at 926 million bushels, up 8 percent from the previous year, pushing the season-average farm price down 10 cents to $4.90 per bushel.
Globally, wheat supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks all increase, driven by sharply higher production in Argentina and Russia, which more than offsets declines elsewhere.
Corn and Coarse Grains
The U.S. corn crop is forecast at a record 17.0 billion bushels on higher yields and expanded harvested acreage. Feed and residual use rises, but supplies grow faster than demand, boosting ending stocks to 2.2 billion bushels. Despite larger stocks, the season-average corn price is raised to $4.10 per bushel.
Worldwide, coarse grain production and stocks increase, led by a record corn crop in China.
Rice
U.S. rice supplies decline due to lower production and imports, while domestic and residual use rises to a record level. Exports are reduced on weaker sales, cutting ending stocks by 9 percent from last year. The all-rice season-average farm price increases 20 cents to $11.80 per hundredweight.
Globally, rice supplies and ending stocks rise, primarily on higher production and larger stocks in China and Japan.
Soybeans and Oilseeds
U.S. soybean production increases modestly, but exports are lowered amid strong competition from Brazil. Ending stocks rise to 350 million bushels, contributing to a 30-cent drop in the projected season-average price to $10.20 per bushel.
Globally, soybean production and stocks increase, with Brazil’s crop boosted by favorable growing conditions.
Sugar
U.S. sugar production is projected slightly higher, more than offsetting reduced imports. Ending stocks rise, increasing the stocks-to-use ratio. In Mexico, sugar production is higher than last year but below last month’s forecast due to harvest delays tied to weather impacts.
Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy
Red meat and poultry production forecasts are raised for 2025 and 2026, led by higher beef and pork output. Cattle prices for 2026 are raised on tighter fed cattle supplies, while hog prices remain steady. The all-milk price averages $21.15 per hundredweight in 2025 but is projected to decline to $18.25 in 2026.
Cotton
U.S. cotton production is reduced due to lower yields, particularly in the Delta, tightening ending stocks and lifting the season-average farm price to 61 cents per pound. Globally, cotton production and ending stocks decline, reducing the global stocks-to-use ratio.
Overall, the January WASDE report highlights ample global supplies for most grains and oilseeds, keeping prices in check, while tighter conditions in cotton and selected livestock markets provide targeted price support.